future

Superforecaster Qualities are:

Cautious: Nothing is certain

Humble: Reality is infinitely complex

Nondeterministic: What happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen

In their abilities and thinking styles, they tend to be:

Actively open-minded: Belief are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected

Intelligent and Knowledgeable, with a "need for cognition": Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges

Reflective: Introspective and self-critical

Numerate: Comfortable with numbers

In their methods of forecasting they tend to be:

Pragmatic: Not wedded to any idea or agenda

Analytical: Capable of stepping back from the tip-of-your-nose perspective and considering and synthesize them into their own

Dragonfly-eyed: Value diverse views and synthesize them into their own

Probalistic: Judge using many grades of maybe

Thoughtful updates: When facts change, they change their minds

Good intuitive psychologist: Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive and emotional biases

In their work ethic, they tend to have:

A growth mindset: Believe it's possible to get better

Grit: Determined to keep at it however long it takes

Origin

Authors of this information is coming from the book that I read: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner)